The main sources of growth are Asia, particularly India, ASEAN countries, and the Middle East

The global steel industry is experiencing its deepest crisis since the financial crisis of 2009. This conclusion was reached by participants at the 98th session of the OECD Steel Committee, held on November 4-5 in Paris. The event was attended by 249 representatives of governments and industry from 43 countries.

According to committee vice-chairs Cheryl Groneweg and Lieven Top, global steel capacity surplus is growing at its fastest pace in 15 years and could exceed 680 million tons by the end of 2025. Total global steel production capacity will reach 2.55 billion tons and could reach a record 2.66 billion tons by 2028. The main sources of growth are Asia, particularly India, ASEAN countries, and the Middle East.

One of the main problems is the surge in Chinese steel exports, which grew by another 10% y/y in the first half of 2025 after reaching a record level of 118 million tons in 2024. Chinese companies, especially state-owned ones, continue to expand instead of reducing excess capacity, including investments in plants in ASEAN and Africa. This leads to a collapse in prices and the displacement of producers in market economies.

Participants emphasized that non-market policies and subsidies—such as preferential energy supplies, tax exemptions, state loans, and advantages for state-owned enterprises—distort competition and discourage private investment. Such measures are particularly prevalent in China, the MENA region, and Southeast Asia.

The overcapacity crisis is also hampering the decarbonization of the industry. About 19% of projects to reduce emissions by 2027 have been put on hold. This undermines companies’ financial performance and slows down the introduction of new technologies.

Delegates supported the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC) initiative to develop a joint framework agreement by June 2026 to counter the crisis and strengthen the effectiveness of trade measures.

As GMK Center reported earlier, global steel production in 2024 decreased by 0.9% compared to 2023, to 1.839 billion tons. In December 2024, the figure was 144.5 million tons, which is 5.6% more than in December 2023 and 1.6% less than in the previous month.

Source: GMK CENTER